Pulse: Growth Outlook and Business Cycle


GLOBAL FINANCIAL ARCHITECTURES (PART THREE): CHINA AS A GLOBAL CREDITOR- THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE AND OTHER PROGRAMS

“When you give roses to others, their fragrance lingers on your hand” Chinese President Xi Jin Ping

Global Financial Architectures: A Decoupling

This is the first in a series of articles about global financial developments analyzing the changing Global Financial Architecture in the age of confrontation between the West and the Global South.  In the first article, we present the  presents the background of the emergence of challenges to the Western-dominated Global Financial Architecture.  Other articles will analyze the GFA 2.0 institutions.

China, the BRICS and the Challenge to the US Dollar

In a recent official trip to China, Brazilian President Lula da Silva called for an end of the dominance of the US dollar in world trade, a message that has been echoed by the China, Iran, Russia, as well as other countries.  This message reflects the acceleration of the trend towards fragmentation(or deglobalization) of the global economy and the Chinese-led challenge to the Bretton Woods US dollar-dominated global economic architecture, an architecture that looks increasingly frayed and rudderless.

The IMF Upward Growth Revisions: Will the Center Hold?

Upside economic surprises from the United States and the eurozone have underscored the fact that the global economy has performed better in the fourth quarter of last year (4Q22). The US economy expanded by 2.9% (annualized), while the eurozone avoided a recession, with output expanding by 0.1%, quarter-on quarter. 

FIG.1 THE IMF UPWARD REVISIONS

A Short-Term Reprieve: The Data

A weaker dollar, falling interest rates, lower inflation and oil prices are offering a welcome, albeit temporary relief to emerging markets.

Bali and Cairo: A Challenging Set of Global issues Meets the Climate Emergency

The Bali Summit is occurring at a time of intensifying challenges facing the global economy.

C’mon, Democrats, Tout Your Economic Record: It’s a Very Good Story

Drawing on the fact-free politics of Donald Trump, Republicans are selling the meme that Americans are much worse off economically and financially under President Joe Biden and the Democrats.  That is demonstrably untrue.  Yet, the Democrats’ main response has been to mumble an apology for the inflation they didn’t cause and try and change the subject.

The IMF View: Broad Slowdown-or Does Everyone Hate the Fed?

The global economic horizon has darkened considerably in the past few weeks. Published at the outset of the annual IMF/World Bank October 2022 meetings, the IMF reports that it expects global economic growth to slow down from 6% in 2021 to 3.1% this year, and 2.7% next year. Of the three largest economies, the United States and the European Union may be heading to recession, while China’s economy is close to being flat.  This bleak economic picture is occurring as policymaking in major countries is in disarray.

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