Pulse: Growth Outlook and Business Cycle


Latin America's Perfect Storm

Originally published by Global Americans.

Emerging Markets at the Cusp: Part One-The Past as Prologue

This article is the first of a series about the challenging global environment facing Emerging Markets/Developing Countries (EM/DCs) living with the legacy of the pandemic and the Ukraine war. In this series, we want to apply the techniques of Country Risk Analysis to assess the changing risk environment, especially as it applies to a potential debt crisis. 

We May Not Have a Recession

The media’s view of the economy has turned dark. The Washington Post instructs, “How to Recession-Proof Your Life,” ABC News counsels, “How to Prepare for a Possible Recession,” and Bloomberg says, “U.S. Recession Is Now More Likely Than Not.” These doomsday reports are reliable clickbait, and faltering consumer confidence suggests that many people believe them. Yet they fail to consider what’s happening in business investment, employment, corporate profits, and consumer spending. 

Conventional Wisdom is Wrong: Americans Are Better Off Even AFTER Inflation

The reason the conventional wisdom doesn’t seem right is because it’s wrong: The incomes of most Americans, adjusted for inflation, increased in 2021.

The Essence of Japan’s Plight

A failure to realize that this is not your father’s economy

The New New Economy: How We Got Here & What's Next

Economist Robert Shapiro shares his insights on economic policymaking and the future of the US economy, and the dark side of globalization

Sustainability Stars: Betty Yee

By Marsha J. Vande Berg

No, the Unemployment Rate Didn’t Really Drop in May

This article was originally published by Washington Monthly.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) surprised the markets and most economists Friday with an announcement that the unemployment rate fell from 14.7 percent in April to 13.3 percent in May. President Donald Trump had the temerity to boast that George Floyd, the unarmed black man killed by a white police officer in Minneapolis, was “looking down from heaven” to admire those numbers. “This is a great day for him,” Trump said in the Rose Garden. “This is a great day for everybody.”

A V Shape Recovery, in Some Sectors

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