Pulse: Markets


China on the Rebound

Confronting Complex Multidimensional Security Challenges in Trinidad and Tobago

I am passing along the English-language version of the article on Trinidad and Tobago, just published by the Center for Doctrine of the Colombian National Army (CEDOE) in its official professional journal "Military Expertise." Click here to read the full text of the report.

 

Whither the US in 2018? US and the Americas and Globally

We conclude 2017, clinging tightly to a still uncertain confidence that job expansion and strong consumer spending can somehow continue, that advancing gains in the capital markets will persist and the promise of global growth engines in China and India, the world’s two most populous countries, is realistic. Growth projections are now pushing north of three percent – and yet there is an uneasy undertow to such an outlook for investors. 

10-Year Retrospective: Lessons 7, 8, 9 | Three more Lessons! That's the Lot

7. Neglect of international causes

This is the most fatal flaw, as it is the one least understood  by economists, governments or bankers.

My interpretation of the crisis emphasises its international dimensions – not only in the rapid spread of the crisis but also in its root causes (see Lesson 3).

Yet this perspective is still denied, derided or ignored.

Tsai Ing-Wen in Central America - Shoring up Defenses before the Collapse of the Truce

I am sharing an article on the topic of Taiwan-PRC diplomatic competition in Central America.

The article examines the recent visit by Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen to Central America, in the context of the possible breakdown of the informal "diplomatic truce" which has prevailed between Taiwan and mainland China since 2008.

This work is available from the ejourunal "Global Taiwan Brief," and the full text can be found below as well.

Time for a Call from the Venezuelan Opposition to President-Elect Trump?

I would like to introduce my recent work on the crisis in Venezuela, and the potential for the incoming administration of President-elect Trump to contribute to a solution, applying the unpredictability that he has already applied, with surprising success, in his dialogue with the President of Taiwan.

You can check out the report here.

China’s Second Policy Paper on Latin America and the Caribbean: Indications of Chinese Intentions, and Recommendations for the U.S. Response

On November 21, 2016, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) published its second white paper on its policy toward Latin America and the Caribbean.   Although the document received very little attention in either the U.S. or region, it serves as a valuable indicator of China’s intentions toward the region, both through what it says on its face, and how it may be read “between the lines.”

Econvue Spotlight

It has been an eventful year with no let-up post-Brexit & Trump. In 2016 the longest-ruling monarch, King Bmibol Adulyadejhu of Thailand, and the longest-ruling national leader, Fidel Castro, both passed from the scene. A surprise demonetization in India made economic history, as Zimbabwe prepares to sweep US dollars from circulation. Change is everywhere and the pace seems to be quickening.

EconVue Spotlight

This US election cycle has had more ups and downs than Game 7 of the World Series. The  sturm und drang  has perhaps defocused us from current issues and uncertainty clouding the global economy.  In our commentary roundup, we will get the US out of the way first, but won’t neglect China, Russia, and the UK, each facing crises of their own. We will end with steady-as-she-goes Japan, and baseball. Fun fact: the victory parade here in Chicago on Friday was the 7th largest gathering of people in human history. 

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