Here are ten things that I think will shape the global and Australian economies in 2018, and that expect I’ll be talking about at conferences and events over the course of the coming year.
1: Central banks
The era of ultra-cheap money, which began during the global financial crisis, is drawing to a close. Already, the US Federal Reserve has raised its key policy interest rate target four times since the end of 2015, and has begun to wind back its bloated balance sheet (something which will take a very long time to complete).
I am sharing with you my article on Chinese engagement with Chile, recently published by the e-journal "China Brief." The article, based on research and interactions during my November 2017 engagement in Santiago is also available at the website of the Jamestown Foundation.
The global economy ends 2017 and enters 2018 in apparent good health. The odds are that world GDP growth, measured at market exchange rates, will continue at a year-over-year rate of nearly 3%. The main economic risks to this scenario—primarily the deflation of asset bubbles in the US or a debt crisis in China’s corporate sector—seem unlikely. More worrisome are geopolitical trends.
This article was originally appeared in the Hindu Business Line and co-authored with Faisal Ahmed, a geopolitical expert and associate professor of international business at FORE School of Management, New Delhi.
As President Xi Jinping emerges stronger, his foreign policy pursuits are now likely to be assertive, not merely persuasive. He joins the league of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping with the inclusion of his thoughts on socialism in the party constitution.
I am sharing a copy of my new article on PRC activities in Brazil that originally appeared in Newsmax.
While partly related to Brazil's size, it is of note that, largely unnoticed in Washington D.C., Brazil is one of the countries in Latin America where the most significant major Chinese commercial advances have occurred during the past year.
I am sharing a new piece of my work, in interview format, regarding Panama’s recognition of the People’s Republic of China. It is available through World Politics Review, whose journalist, Omar Rahman, did the interview with me:
This report originally appeared in the Straits Times.
China and Singapore share longstanding and broad-based bilateral relations. Singapore's founding prime minister Lee Kuan Yew visited China 33 times over 37 years, witnessing China's extraordinary progress.
Today, China is firmly entrenched in the era of the "Four Great New Inventions", namely the high-speed railway, e-commerce, mobile payment and the sharing economy. When Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong visited China again recently, he must have had some different and impressive experiences.