Growth Outlook and Business Cycle

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‘Old’ Reliable Indicators Are More Nuanced in This Cycle

FMI’s commentary on the changing implications for some venerable data series.

Data Round-Up: Real Equipment Spending Likely to 'Pause' in 18Q2 -- Up Less than +2%

FMI’s analysis of today’s April Durable Goods Orders report.

Data Round-Up: April Retail Sales & Revisions Put Better Tone on 2018 Spending

FMI’s analyses of this morning’s April Retail Sales and March Business Inventories reports, and an updated look at likely GDP revisions for 18Q1 (all three also attached as a single PDF), plus notes on this morning’s the May NY Fed Empire regional manufacturing index and the May NAHB Housing Market index.

Data Round-Up: Core CPI a Bit Light in April, But Trend Still Picking Up

FMI’s analysis of this morning’s April CPI report plus our review of the latest Weekly UI Claims & Rail Traffic results.

After March Spurt, April Vehicle Sales Decelerate to OK Trend

FMI’s analysis of April Vehicle Sales based on the complete count released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning (which includes the unpublished GM totals).

Data Round-Up: Real Consumption Positioned for Solid Gain in 18Q2

FMI’s analyses of today’s March Personal Income & Consumption and April Chicago Purchasing Managers Index reports.

Data Round-Up: Real Equipment Spending Likely Up an OK +4% in 18Q1

FMI’s analysis of today’s March Durable Goods Orders and March Advance Indicators (international trade-goods, wholesale & retail inventories) reports, plus the latest Weekly UI Claims results.

Data Round-Up: Existing Home Sales Stay on So-So Course in 18Q1

FMI’s review of this morning’s March Existing Home Sales report.

Jobs Shortfall in March Reflected Shifts in the Weather

FMI’s commentary on the March “shortfall” in payroll jobs and its likely cause.

Data Round-Up: Strong JOLTS Show Labor Market Still Quite Healthy

FMI’s review of today’s February JOLTS report and March Bank Lending & Money Supply results.

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