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Trillion-Dollar Federal Deficits Are Best-Case Scenario Going Forward

FMI’s commentary on Trump fiscal and trade policy.

Data Round-Up: Mfg Output Surges; Single-Family Housing Starts Continue to Trend Up

FMI’s analyses of this morning’s February Housing Starts, February Industrial Production and January JOLTS reports, and February Bank Lending & Money Supply data

Data Round-Up: Soft Retail Sales a Pause, Not a Problem

FMI’s analyses of this morning’s February Retail Sales, January Business Inventories, and February PPI reports.

Data Round-Up: Core CPI Continues to Show Upward Pressures; NFIB Near 45-Year High

FMI’s analyses of this morning’s February CPI including recent high-frequency price data, the February Small Business Optimism Index and the 18Q2 Manpower Employment Index.

Million-Jobs Surge in Household Survey Nice, But No Signal

FMI’s commentary on the spike in February household survey jobs.

Data Round-Up: Payrolls Post Stunning Job Gains in February

FMI’s analysis of today’s February Employment report as well as notes on the details in President Trump’s tariff announcement.

Data Round Up: Household Net Worth Jumped Another +$2T in 17Q4

FMI’s review of this afternoon’s 17Q4 U.S. Financial Accounts (formerly Flow of Funds) report.

February Employment Preview: Expect +180K Private Jobs Gain

FMI’s Preview of Friday’s February Employment report including a review of latest Weekly Initial UI Claims & Rail Traffic data.

Trump Tariffs Pose Little Threat to U.S. Macro Economy, Some Opportunity

FMI’s commentary on the Trump tariffs.

Data Round-Up: U.S. Exports, Imports Retrench in January; Trade Likely a Moderate Negative for 18Q1 GDP

FMI’s analyses of this morning’s January International Trade and 17Q4 Revised Productivity & Labor Costs reports.